Machine learning · Real estate · Dubai
Dubai Property Price Estimator
What is a fair price for an apartment or villa in Dubai? This model learned from 100,000+ real sales registered with the Dubai Land Department in 2026.
- – sales analysed
- – total value
- – median per sq ft
- – median model error
Estimate a price
Estimated price
–
An estimate from past sales, not a valuation or financial advice.
The 2026 market so far
Sales per month
Median price per sq ft (AED)
Most expensive areas AED / sq ft
Most affordable areas AED / sq ft
Busiest areas number of sales
Typical apartment price by bedrooms
How accurate is it?
The model learned from January–August sales and was tested on September–October sales it had never seen.
| Method | Median error | Within 10% | Within 20% |
|---|
Median error: half of the test sales were predicted closer than this. A simple baseline ("area's typical price per sq ft × size") is shown for comparison.
What drives the price permutation importance
- 1
Clean real data
Official Dubai Land Department transactions. Removed gifts, lease-to-own and bulk developer registrations, impossible sizes and extreme prices.
- 2
Gradient boosting
400 small decision trees (scikit-learn) predict the price per sq ft from area, type, bedrooms, size and off-plan status. Areas are encoded by their typical price.
- 3
Runs in your browser
The trees are exported to JSON and evaluated by a few lines of JavaScript, so estimates are instant and nothing is sent to a server.